Comments on: Ryan Shanley: A Statistical Analysis of the MLB Postseason

By: Shanley

Shanley — Sun, 29 Oct 2006 21:28:33 +0000

So, as much as it hurts, now that the playoffs are over, I’ll analyze the strengths and weaknesses of this model. For starters, the model identified six favorable series bets (Mets LDS, LCS, & WS, Twins LCS & WS, Tigers LDS). Betting 1 unit on each would have resulted in a net loss of 0.63. However, betting 1 unit on the favorite for every series would have resulted in a net loss of about -4. Perhaps the most important point was the first sentence in the original post: “most results are determined by luck.”

Some thoughts on certain teams:

- The model correctly showed that the Yankees’ high odds of winning were unjustified.

- I think the Twins are still a good postseason team, despite their performance. Just goes to show that if a team plays flat for a couple games, their season is over in a hurry.

- The Mets had a 52% chance of making the World Series and didn’t. They had two dependable starting pitchers get injured right at the start of the playoffs and their starting left fielder missed the NLCS. Even so, their seven game series against the Cardinals was essentially even.

- Nobody gave the Cardinals a chance, including this writer. Even with the luck factor, this model didn’t recommend taking the 12-1 championship odds for St. Louis at the start of the postseason. It was reasonable to think they could win the first round, but they were at least 2-1 underdogs against the Mets and Tigers. So what happened?

1. Injured players (Rolen, Edmonds, Eckstein) got healthy just in time for the postseason, and contributed on offense and defense.

2. Starting pitching suddenly got a boost when Weaver and Reyes came out of nowhere to pitch better than they had all season.

3. It might have actually helped that their mediocre closer went on the DL in September. The bullpen had given no indication all year that they could pitch as well as they did in October.

So, here’s the formula for playoff success – get in, and get hot.

By: Dusty

Dusty — Thu, 05 Oct 2006 13:14:16 +0000

Bitching to get things done properly since 2004. ™

By: rmorlok

rmorlok — Thu, 05 Oct 2006 03:18:39 +0000

I’ll add it to Katy’s blog. I’ve had the feature since dusty complained about the issue a while ago.

By: Amanda

Amanda — Thu, 05 Oct 2006 02:59:32 +0000

This will work. I just wanted something to show I was responding to a specfic comment. But Katy’s blog doesn’t seem to have this feature. I don’t know if yours always has.

By: rmorlok

rmorlok — Wed, 04 Oct 2006 17:28:21 +0000

I think that’s the threaded comments feature. Is that what you were looking for, or were you looking for the ability to select text in a previous comment or text from the post and have it automagically copied to your current comment? That was the plugin I installed, and it doesn’t seem to be working.

By: Amanda

Amanda — Wed, 04 Oct 2006 11:56:11 +0000

*nest. Sorry. I haven’t figured out how to edit my posts yet.

By: Amanda

Amanda — Wed, 04 Oct 2006 11:55:36 +0000

Oh, it did next. I don’t know why it said that it wouldn’t.

By: Amanda

Amanda — Wed, 04 Oct 2006 11:55:02 +0000

I’m also in Firefox, but it hasn’t been updated for a while. There are nice little “Reply here” links and the messages are nested. Are you sure you don’t see it? Because your comments are nested too. Well, I guess it only nests up to four levels, btw.

By: rmorlok

rmorlok — Wed, 04 Oct 2006 01:30:30 +0000

Ok, wow, I don’t see anything. Maybe it’s browser dependant. I’m using Firefox, are you using IE? I enabled it on katy’s blog as well.

By: Amanda

Amanda — Wed, 04 Oct 2006 01:00:43 +0000

I see it as working.